India's National Security Annual Review 2003 Contents I.     Review and Analysis 1.    Global Security Trends        Satish Kumar Global security remained a victim of terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Even though the United States and its allies had succeeded in eliminating the Taliban from their control over Afghanistan, which had become the home of Al-Qaeda, and most countries of the world had extended their sympathy and support to the United States in this venture, terrorism spearheaded by extremist Islamic groups showed its deadly face in various parts of the world. The anxiety that terrorist groups might get hold of weapons of mass destruction reinforced the efforts of the Bush administration to stop or counter WMD proliferation but without much success... 2.    Global and Regional Military Environment        Vijay Oberoi The global military environment is influenced by the unilateralism of the sole super power, USA; war on terrorism; the vast potential of the information revolution; the growing potential of regional powers, particularly China; the spread of fundamentalism; and the social upheaval in many developing countries due to the rising expectations of their people.  The scenario is further complicated by a rise in trans-border terrorism, sponsored ethnic strife, and low intensity conflicts... 3.    External Economic Environment: A Globalised India?       Shubhashish Gangopadhyay India’s human development rank is 124 among 173 countries. This is not acceptable for two reasons. First, this actually shows a slippage in our relative position since the time of Independence. Though such rankings are not available for the early 1950s, when we look at the 1950 values of some of the variables that go into these rankings, India was well ahead of most of its Asian neighbours of that time. India, at the time of Independence, had almost similar levels of per-capita income as that of China or Korea, but since then both these economies have out-performed us in terms of per-capita income or even in terms of share in the global economy... 4.    External Security Environment        Satish Kumar The security environment of India in the year 2002 was dominated by the possibility of war with Pakistan in the midst of incessant terrorist attacks by Pakistan-sponsored militants on high value targets in India. Considerable diplomatic effort was invested by India in persuading major powers of the world, particularly the United States, to pressurise Pakistan to stop abetting cross-border terrorism. While counsels of restraint from external powers came in plenty and India yielded to them, none of them had any effect on Pakistan... 5.    India’s Military Modernization        B. D. Jayal Over the years, modernization of the armed forces has continued to suffer. Reasons have varied from resource constraints on one hand to paralysis, within the procurement system as a result of real or perceived scandals, on the other. It was therefore no surprise that in the midst of the Kargil conflict the Army Chief while addressing a Press conference admitted rather helplessly that if war were thrust on the army, it would do its best with what it had!... 6.    Internal Security Threats        Satish Kumar The year under review witnessed serious violence in Jammu and Kashmir, North East, and by Left Wing extremist groups. Besides, there were unfortunate communal incidents. While there were reports of corruption in high places, attacks on Dalits, suicide by farmers, and problems related to water sharing between states, the major issues of concern pertained to terrorism, communalism, and illegal migration from Bangladesh... 7.    Some Concerns about Internal Security        N. N. Vohra India’s internal security problems, arising from varied sources, are influenced by a host of factors among which are its past history, geography, colonial legacy, a very large number of political parties at the regional and sub-regional levels and a polity which is still in the process of stabilising, an inadequate electoral system which has still to prevent persons with known criminal backgrounds getting into the legislature, a burgeoning population, economic disparities and complex socio-cultural and ethno-religious traditions which interplay freely in our secular democracy. As developments in the past five decades have shown, regional and global developments also impact significantly on our security interests. .. 8.    India’s Economic Security       Tarun Das This is clearly a world of increasing interdependence. Technology has made it so, and borders between countries and continents are being bridged by the power of information and financial flows. In this framework, is there a place for national economic security? If the answer is in the positive, then how does a nation consider itself economically secure? And, is India’s economic security in good shape?... 9.     Technology and Security         Raja Menon The industrial era has admittedly given way to the information or technological, best understood by the radical change in the constituent costs of a product. While Marx held that it was labour during the industrial age, with materials making up the rest of the costs, today the quotient for technological amortisation and advertising costs of a product often dwarfs the material and labour costs. Not surprisingly, technology has become the foundation for economic prosperity. It would be missing the point therefore if the implications of high or low technologies was seen to affect only military security, when it may well initially decide the economic security of a people... 10.   Self Reliance in Defence Technologies         Amitav Mallik In the emerging new world order dictated by core techno-economic strengths, India is still hesitating or unable to take bold strides to prove itself fully competitive with the best in the world. While the Western advanced nations are forging cooperative security and risk reduction programmes, India continues to be perceived as a ‘Country of Concern’ that is unable to resolve its regional disputes as well as the internal disorder. One could blame it on governance or political will. but in actual tangible terms it is the lack of indigenous techno-economic capabilities that is holding us down... 11.   Health Hazards and National Security        D. Raghunath National Security defined as the ability of a state to maintain its integrity and assure the welfare of its peoples has various contributing factors built in. The physical development of the population of a country is an important component. A society burdened by a large proportion of malnourished, sick or handicapped individuals in its population would certainly not be secure. The health of the people determines their level of economic activity since debilitated individuals not only have a low efficiency but also drain the resources of the state. India has a long way to go before it can attain optimum levels of health... 12.   Security Implications of Climate Change        Saumitra Mukherjee There is no doubt about the changing climate and its influence on various sectors of earth.  This has been established by the research carried out by various agencies across earth. Extensive work has been carried out to understand the influence of climate changes on the security of earth and its various environmental components. It has been a matter of great concern to understand and analyze seismic security, food security (related to agriculture and rainfall), water security and other associated phenomena... 13.   The Shape of Urban India and Some Security Concerns         K. C. Sivaramakrishnan Urbanization in India is neither unique nor exclusive but is part of a worldwide phenomenon. It is a manifestation of economic change and growth in agriculture, industry and services. According to the 2001 Census, the urban population of India is 285.35 million. The percentage is 27.78 per cent in 2001 as against 25.72 per cent in 1991, 23.73 per cent in 1981 and 20.22 per cent in 1971. But these figures alone do not portray the urban picture. The state-wise variations are significant... 14.   National Security Index         Satish Kumar 15.   Acquisition of Arms and Military Technology by India and Its Neighbours        INSAR Research Staff II.    Chronology of Major Events III.   Select Documents IV.   Basic Statistics V.    Index     Editorial Board Chairman Amb. M. Rasgotra, Former Foreign Secretary, Government of India Members Dr. Sanjaya Baru, Editor, The Financial Express, New Delhi Sh. Tarun Das, Director General, Confederation of Indian Industry, New Delhi Prof. P. V. Indiresan, Former Director, Indian Institute of Technology, Chennai Lt. Gen. Satish Nambiar, Director, United Service Institution of India, New Delhi Dr. Roddam Narasimha, Director, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore Sh. Y. S. Rajan, Scientific Advisor to the Chief Minister of Punjab, and Vice Chancellor, Punjab Technical University, Jalandhar Dr. V. Siddhartha, Advisor, Secretariat of the Scientific Advisor to Raksha Mantri, DRDO, New Delhi Air Cmde. Jasjit Singh, Former Director, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi Sh. B. G. Verghese, Former Editor, The Hindustan Times, New Delhi Editor-in-Chief Prof. Satish Kumar Former Professor of Diplomacy Jawaharlal  Nehru University New Delhi Editorial Office B-9/6274, Vasant Kunj, New Delhi-110070 Tel.: 91-11-26899426 Fax: 91-11-26897110 Email: kautilya33@yahoo.com                                                                                           For details, see Satish Kumar, (ed.), India's National Security Annual Review 2003, New Delhi, India Research Press, 2003, pp. 694, Rs. 975/-.